Why I become to believe China will have a brilliant future

I used to be pessimistic about the future of China. I thought the government was inefficient and officials were all corruptive. Since late of 2006, through information from all kind of media, Jim Rogers' books and Steven N.s. Cheung's blog, I have believed that China will have a brilliant future.

Jim Rogers travelled around the world two times, he knows the ecnomics of over 100 countries; his believing in China cannot be wrong so easily. Professor Cheung, grew up in China, studied and worked in the US for years. He is a wise and rational ecnomist; I also do not think he can mistake on such problems. As a Chinese, Professor Cheung said he can write 3 books on criticising China's dark side, however, he admitted that Beijing must have done things quite correctly, otherwise, China cannot make such a historic progress in past 30 years. Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's partner, the vice president of Berkhire Hathaway, said to those who resist Beijing Olympic early this year :" To ask yourself, does China become better or worse in these years?"

Moreover, I find that talent and wise people become to be in the right places in this country; the Mckinsey report How corporate China is evolving display this.

So, why China should not have a brilliant future?

Business in Wuhan

Are you planning to do business in Wuhan, the biggest city in centeral China? Quite smart!

The south China is losing some of its advantage in manufacture industry. The prices for houses, land and labor are rising rapidly. The local government increases the lowest salary year by year in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan etc. As profit margin has already dereased quickly, many factories are considering on removing to even poorer countries like Vitenam and Burma. Obviously, that cannot solve the problem completely. There are not so many well educated engineers and huge labor resouce in these countries; also, the public facility is not as good as that in China.

How? Move to north, move to Wuhan. Tranportation cost may increase, but cost on labor, land, rent, electricity and facility will compensate much more. Wuhan has the 3rd largest university student population, 2nd largest iron & steel production, 2nd largest auto company in the nation. The biggest hydroelectric station in the world is also nearby. The city has been called "center of China" for hundreds of years. The biggest & longest river and the most important railways and highways in the nation are all pass throuth this center city. In the early 20th centry, the city was called "Oriental Chicago" by foreign investors and adventurers. Before 1949, Shanghai and Wuhan are the topest 2 cities ahead of Beijing in China.

World famous companies have already come to Wuhan. Citroen and Foxconn both has big factories of over 100,000 workers in Wuhan. The French have put most of its investment in China to Wuhan for quite a long time.

If you are interested in Wuhan or like any discussion on this city, please contact me. I am now intesested in the fields of

1) financial service (only interested in value investment)
2) food service
3) retail
4) education
5) internet
6) microelectronics


I am glad to have your emails: ickitt(*at*)gmail.com

Is it time to invest Chinese stocks?

US market has been stricken heavily by the sub prime. Even Warren Buffett, who became the richest man in the world today, admitted that US economy is being faced with fading. How about China?

Will China survive alone in this crisis? Of course US is a big and important market for Chinese manufactures and China's GDP is expected to increase only 8% this year, but that is still good enough. China itself has the greatest demand on this planet. Its people are stimulated successfully to consume much more than before. Please come to any supermarket or shopping mall in China, which is filled with customers no matter on weekend or workday national wide.

Chinese do not become rich one night; in fact, most Chinese are still much poorer than most American can imagine. However, persuaded by the central government, Chinese have decreased their saving and consumed more. You can find the novel iPhone at Chinese young men's hands, PSP played by children, and luxury auctioned on marts...

The overall PE of Chinese blue chips has kept on decreasing since last year end (now, it is only half compared to that of in mid 2007), PEG of blue chip section is less than 0.8. Jim Rogers, the legend world wide investor, has kept in collecting Chinese stocks for years. Just yesterday, Jim advocated strong buy! If you do not believe Chinese manufacturing, at least, you should never miss the retail sector.

Believe in 2008 or regret in 2009...

Gmail not accessible since Mar 1 2008

Gmail has been not accessible in Chinese mainland. What is the problem? The IE status bar displays "Script Error".

GFW or anything else? I will try with firefox later...

update: on Mar 5, gmail restored. It seemed that the gmail itself got some problem this time...